Sales forecasts fail for a boring reason. Teams confuse how confident a rep sounds with what the buyer has actually proven. When forecasts are built on opinions instead of evidence, misses are inevitable. This post shows where confidence sneaks in, why it feels convincing, and how to replace it with proof that holds up at quarter close.

Forecast accuracy didn’t suddenly collapse. It just stopped being protected by assumptions. When sales teams introduce real measurement, the truth shows up fast. Not because performance worsened, but because guesswork finally lost its cover.