Sales forecasts fail for a boring reason. Teams confuse how confident a rep sounds with what the buyer has actually proven. When forecasts are built on opinions instead of evidence, misses are inevitable. This post shows where confidence sneaks in, why it feels convincing, and how to replace it with proof that holds up at quarter close.

Your best deals don’t die because the first meeting went badly. They die because it went too well. Early enthusiasm creates false confidence, and by the time missing evidence shows up, the buyer has already moved on.

Pipeline reviews look rigorous. Slides are full. Confidence is high. Then the quarter closes and revenue misses anyway. This post breaks down the five most common lies hiding in pipeline reviews and shows how to replace hope with evidence, so forecasts stop being guesswork.